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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd