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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still